While the Texas redistricting fight is getting all the attention at the moment, the Kansas City area is also in Trump’s crosshairs. That begs the question: Why aren’t they trying to mess with Missouri’s largest Democratic stronghold?
Let’s look at that.
đź”´ 1. Kansas City Is More Vulnerable Politically
Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver’s 5th District, centered in Kansas City, is Democratic, but less safely so than St. Louis’s 1st District.
Republicans considered splitting Kansas City between multiple districts to dilute the Black and Democratic vote and potentially flip the seat.
This strategy—known as gerrymandering by cracking—was floated during the 2022 redistricting but met with resistance, especially from Missouri Senate conservatives, who wanted even more aggressive changes.
🔵 2. St. Louis Is Deep Blue, Queer, and Most Critically, Heavily Black
Rep. Wesley Bell’s 1st District is overwhelmingly Democratic and majority-Black.
Splitting it would not meaningfully help Republicans win another seat—it would instead risk:
Legal challenges under the Voting Rights Act.
Political backlash for trying to disenfranchise Black voters.
Wasting Republican votes trying to dilute a district they can’t win anyway.
Plus, Rep. Ann Wagner’s 2nd District, which borders St. Louis, is suburban and swingy. Dumping more liberal St. Louis voters into it could threaten Wagner’s hold on the seat.
🏛️ 3. Strategic Calculations
Republicans in Missouri already hold 6 of 8 congressional seats.
The focus on Kansas City is about potentially turning that into 7 of 8.
With St. Louis, the risk-reward just doesn’t add up—you can’t crack it without hurting your own incumbents.
🗳️ Summary
Republicans are targeting Kansas City because it’s crackable and competitive. St. Louis, by contrast, is too solidly Democratic, and messing with it could backfire politically and legally. It’s a matter of political feasibility and risk management.
